April 12, 2010
Reference: Carmel and Pebble Performance Q1 2010
I am pleased to report that activity levels at Broker tours and Open houses have been noticeably strong this quarter. The result has been increased sales activity in both of the Carmel and Pebble Beach geographies that I will review.
Once again I am reporting on an abbreviated Carmel geography. It includes homes above $1 million in the Golden Rectangle, (Dolores to Scenic), all of Carmelo, San Antonio, Scenic, Bayview and Ocean View. I believe that this snapshot best represents the market in Carmel-by-the-Sea.
My Pebble Beach statistics covers all activity in the Forest for properties over $1 million
1. Q1 '10 sales of 9 homes showed an increase versus Q4 '09 but are still running behind 9 year average (11 sales per quarter)
2. 6 of the 9 sales were in the lower price brackets ($1-2million). Year-end '09 results showed 50% of the sales in these lower brackets. Buyers in these brackets are able to find financing and ample inventory to pick from.
3. 3 of the 9 sales closed at prices at or above the List Price indicating better pricing by the Sellers, a greater demand, and is a signal that prices are bottoming out.
4. The average DOM (Days on Market) for the 9 sales is down to 93 days versus an average of 140 for '09. This indicates that the newer listings are being priced better, signaling that properties have been in inventory for an extended amount of time could be priced too high.
5. There are 4 Pending sales due to close in April with an average DOM of just 19 days. These sales if closed would be a good start to Q2.
6. The average discount off list price for Q1 was a very low -8.3% against an '09 average of -16%, another indicator that prices are finding the bottom.
7. Inventories are down to 29 homes for sale. This is 69% of an average year over the 9 year average. Much like in Pebble Beach there are homes in the higher price brackets that have been on the market for an extended period of time due to a lack of activity in those price brackets. There have been only 2 sales over $5 million in the last 15 months, and only 5 sales over $4 million in the same time frame. In order to grow sales, or at least achieve the 9 year average run rate, we will need new listings in the next 3 quarters.
Pebble Beach Results:
1. Sales in Pebble Beach increased to 14 in Q1 2010. This result is up from 12 in Q4 '09. The total while positive is still running short of the 9 year average of 16 per quarter annualized rate.
2. Q1 2010 had two houses close over $8,000,000 which equals the entire year of '09
in the highest price bracket. This is very encouraging... to equal last years output in just the first quarter.
3. 2 homes closed at or above List Price, indicating better pricing on behalf of the
Sellers, and an increased demand.
4. 10 of the 14 sales occurred in the $1-2million brackets. Considering the highest bracket Buyers are predominantly cash Buyers and the lower brackets have the "first time Buyer stimulus", as well as conventional lending readily available... hopefully, the middle brackets will begin to find financing available to jumpstart activity at those price levels.
5. Inventories are down slightly to 91 versus a year end '09 figure of 96. Year end '08 had 111 homes for sale. This figure, while reduced, still represents 18 months inventory relative to the 9 year average of sales. Unlike Carmel, Pebble Beach inventory is not a problem.
6. The average DOM (Days on Market) of 310 of all listings in Pebble is reflected by the fact that in 15 months there have been only 4 sales greater than $8 million and only 7 greater than $4 million. Many of the other homes in inventory in the higher price brackets have been active for a long time and are reflected in the increased DOM figure. The average DOM for sales in Q1 is 207.
7. There were 3 Pending Sales at the end of Q1. They are expected to close in April '10. Hopefully this will jumpstart a good Q2 and contribute to a higher than average sales figure.
While existing home sales fell across the country in Q1 2010, sales in both Carmel and Pebble Beach increased to levels approaching the 9-year average we use to measure our markets. Three elements.... increased sales in the higher priced brackets, homes selling for list price or greater, average discounts off List price has improved... are all reasons for guarded optimism. I will be following these things very closely to help me determine the performance in our markets.
If you have any questions regarding my report and would like to discuss with me, feel free to call me anytime on my cell phone or email me.
Carmel Realty Company
cell (831) 241-1434